Let the headscratching commence

Actually, to be honest, this isn't an exceedingly tough Saratoga card by Saratoga card standards and especially considering the purse hike. That's to say nothing about the amount of enticing wagering opportunities there will be on Wednesday, but there will be days this meet where it looks like every last horse entered looks to fit, and at least things look somewhat discriminable for Opening Day '07. The only serious mitigating factor is the uncertainty over how the track will play, but any major biases should be detectable relatively early.

We start with the first, a race which gives me a weird feeling of deja vu, possibly because it's just about the same exact heat that kicked off last year's festivites. It's a $35,000 open claimer for elders, going 1 1/16 miles on the grass. Massoud, the favored winner of that run, is back, with the same program number (3) this time around and the same conditioning pattern (coming off a long break), Forget the Judge and Noah A., two of the other major betting interests in that field, are back as well, and it's another large field assembled for the first call to post. Only significant difference is that this year's version is on the inner turf, rather than the mellon.

Being that handicapping this race feels so curiously familiar, it's probably a good idea to approach it similarly. MASSOUD should be tough to beat, being the only runner in the field with consistent figures in the mid-90 BSF range and 4-5 TG range, and he's proven he can win fresh, as well as adapt to numerous pace scenarios. PANGBURN has a big number jumping off the page three back, but his two races since then have been rather dull, and if I'm going to hedge, I generally don't like doing it with horses showing one big run and then subpar form since. SI O NO drops in class technically, but this isn't your typical field of $35,000 claimers, and he's shown an aversion to winning of late. Everyone else just seems slower than Massoud on his best form, which can be expected unless Tomlinson/Motion/Velazquez are trying to get rid of him, an unlikely scenario considering it's the Saratoga opener.

MASSOUD to win at 2/1 or higher. Hate to start off chalky, but there you go.

In the second, we quickly get to espy how impressive exactly the bizarre looking Fed Watcher's :56 MSW win at BEL was a little while ago, as third-place finisher IMMORTAL EYES should be heavily favored in this 11-horse MSW at 5 1/2 furlongs. The $220,000 2YOIT purchase (by $5,000 sire Greatness) earned an 89 BSF and 8 TG for his debut, while his closest competitors have blown only a 75 BSF and 11 TG (BOLD TRUST). A newcomer on the rail, NOBLE HERO is interesting, as he's by hot young sire Vindication and is a half to G2 Norfolk winner Ruler's Court and G3-placed Wise River. Julien Leparoux opts off both ECTON and IN ORBIT to ride Noble Hero, but that rail draw is tricky and trainer Dallas Stewart didn't have the greatest of meets last summer. FOREST PRINCE, the first Pletcher/Velazquez concoction of the meet, is by a homebred by Mineshaft out of a multiple G3 winner who is a full sister to sprint star Wildcat Heir. Stan Hough and Paul Robsham send out a $475,000 yearling purchase in Sargent Seattle, another son of Vindication. Aforementioned In Orbit is a half-brother to turf superstar Colstar, who was 11-for-18 and won the G1 Flower Bowl, and while In Orbit's debut wasn't too sharp, he broke badly and ran evenly, meaning he may have needed the start, and he posts a sharper than usual work since.

IMMORTAL EYES looks tough, and is a bet in the double with MASSOUD at 8/1 or higher, which probably isn't happening. Otherwise, just going to watch this one.

The third contains the smallest field of the day, eight horses, and is the first tough race, with three or four top contenders and a few other unknowns. SCORPIUS and GRAND CHAMPION tote big figures, and LORD SNOWDON isn't far behind them. SIR SILVER FOX comes into this off a 98 BSF/0 TG romp in the CRC slop, but we all know how reliable that form is. GSTAAD is slow on figures, but he jumped up to score at 15-1 last out and may have turned the corner. DEADLY DEALER, briefly on the Derby Trail, returns to action following a disappointing seventh as the chalk in the G2 Woody Stephens at BEL. Ex-Chuck Simon trainee BRILLIANT SON returns off a long layoff with a steady string of works for Kiaran McLaughlin.

Pass this race, unless you want to single Immortal Eyes in the Pick Four (not outlandish by any means), then I'd use SCORPIUS, LORD SNOWDON, DEADLY DEALER and GRAND CHAMPION.

The fourth is the first of what will undoubtedly be many grass sprints at the Spa, and it drew an interesting crew of 12 fillies, with two coupled entries, one from Gary Contessa (HOLY TROUBLE/SISTER DESIREE) and one from Linda Rice (MOTOR CITY MAMA/DRESSED TO WIN). Contessa's pair is imposing for sure, with the inconsistent but often sharp Holy Trouble complementing nicely with Sister Desiree, who enters this off a good fourth in an overnight at BEL. DATA might get lost in the wagering following her dull U.S. debut, but she's got talent to be sure, having scored by 17 at even-money in her native Argentina before promptly placing in a Group 1 turf sprint. That form isn't always a stellar translation, but Garret Gomez picks up the ride and she should be used. EGYPT LANE and SMARTGABRIELLE are both too sharp to ignore, SARAH'S SMILER comes into this off a sharp claiming win, and FOREST JAZZY attempts to revert to her 24-length maiden-winning form following a wack turf sprint try 6/30.

HOLY TROUBLE/SISTER DESIREE, EGYPT LANE, SARAH'S SMILER, SMARTGABRIELLE and DATA are all I need.

Fifth is pretty interesting. Tempted to use BORBUDUR, a Frankel shipper from overseas who's been working locally for a while for his four-year-old debut, VIRGINIA MINSTREL, who's got big figures and has run into some nice ones, TERROR ON TRACK, who gets John Velazquez even with a Pletcher in the race, and WARN, who narrowly missed after an awkward trip last out. But the inside is the place to be on the inner, so ROCKET LEGS, the Pletcher, excites a little.

See above.

Sixth is a $20,000 claimer. That came outta left field. Pretty wide open, but don't bet Multiple Choice. He's a hanger.

Seventh is the first NY-bred race of the meet, and if they're all of this quality, I'll stop complaining about NY-breds being allowed into the Spa. STATELY PEGASUS, KILL DEVIL RUM and HANGINGBYATHREAD look to be the class.

Eighth is an interesting optional claimer for Tree Plus, featuring 38-to-95 BSF runner GARIFINE, potential-laden JAMAICAN KEV, an impressive two-year-old from last summer, IRISH ACE, making his first start since October, with the same going for INCRIMINATE. BABY RUSCH will draw money off his 96 BSF last out, but he's yet to venture out of NY-bred company, and that's a big leap.

The featuerd Schuylerville, which we drive through every day on the way to and from the track, houses two very promising runners, first in Barclay Tagg's ACCORDING TO PLAN, who smoothly won her debut in :56 1/5 on 6/29, and SUBTLE ALY, who set a track record for 4 1/2 furlongs at CD (:50 2/5) despite being let go at nearly 14-1. She's since been purchased by IEAH and transferred to Dutrow, who employs main man Prado. Those two will be tough to corral, although YES BY WEST and DREABONS LEGACY could challenge if one of the top two should falter.

The finale? Throw some darts at that bitch.

Gotta go pack. Oh yeah, I'm still in Brooklyn by the way. Leaving tomorrow and should get to the track just in time for the first race. Once again, good to have you aboard.